🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still